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Mechanism-Dependent Collapse in Complex Systems: Structural Compression, Conditional Proxy Validation, and the Limits of Early Warning Signals

2026/03/22 by Bernd von Mallinckrodt · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Chaos control and synchronization #Complex Systems and Dynamics #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience

paper · doi:10.5281/zenodo.19160980

openalex publication_date 2026/03/22 · openalex created_date 2026/03/23 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01

Abstract

This record presents a formal framework for analyzing collapse dynamics in complex adaptive systems from a mechanism-dependent perspective. The work introduces the Constraint–Response Transition Index (CRTI), which distinguishes between bifurcation-driven collapse and structural compression. A central contribution is the conditional validation of a proxy for structural compression. Using a multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck reference system with analytically known entropy, effective rank of the covariance matrix is shown to track accessible state space entropy under specific conditions (Spearman r = 0.962). The validity of this proxy is explicitly bounded and does not extend to anisotropic, multimodal, or heavy-tailed systems. The framework emphasizes mechanism-conditional interpretation of early warning signals rather than universal applicability. This record is released as a preprint to establish a time-stamped reference for the framework, its mathematical structure, and its validation boundaries. complex systems collapse dynamics early warning signals structural compression adaptive capacity entropy effective rank Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process mechanism-dependent collapse CRTI

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