2026/01/01 by Kerby Davis, Eugene Gholz · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Maritime Security and History #International Relations and Foreign Policy #European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies
paper · pdf · doi:10.1162/isec.a.407
openalex publication_date 2026/01/01 · openalex created_date 2026/06/05 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/26
Abstract The possibility that China might use military force to try to reunify with Taiwan increasingly worries analysts, especially as China expands its military investments and the political relationship between China and Taiwan deteriorates. Much of the military analysis of the relationship focuses on invasion scenarios, but some analysts suggest that a blockade is a less risky way for China to compel Taiwan to capitulate. This article points out some undesirable features of a traditional blockade in which China tries to interdict shipping approaching Taiwan, particularly by deploying a surface fleet and submarines. We built a Monte Carlo simulation model of an alternative Chinese concept of blockade operations using standoff missile strikes on ports to diminish cargo throughput to Taiwan. The military campaign analysis results suggest that China likely can substantially suppress Taiwan's trade, at relatively low escalation risk, without depleting China's scarce and expensive fleet. We discuss reasons why even militarily successful blockades have rarely achieved all their political goals, and we offer suggestions for Taiwan to build resilience and thereby reduce the probability of this potentially militarily effective concept of blockade operations.