2026/06/29 by Erica D Lonergan · 2 voices
Social Sciences · #Ethics and Social Impacts of AI #Intelligence, Security, War Strategy #Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare Studies
paper · doi:10.1080/02684527.2026.2690392
openalex publication_date 2026/06/29 · openalex created_date 2026/07/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the speed and scale at which intelligence organizations collect, analyze, and disseminate information. In turn, some are optimistic that AI will reduce the risks of intelligence failures. To evaluate this claim, this article puts AI debates in conversation with the literature on intelligence failures and strategic surprise. The article makes two core arguments. First, AI technologies are not likely to alleviate most causes of intelligence failures. Second, AI is generating new and unpredictable pathways to intelligence failures. Rather than offering a panacea, AI creates novel risks that may result in new sources of intelligence failures.