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When Bullets and Ballots Collide: How the Dissolution of the Anti-Islamic State Coalition Stalled Iraq’s Transition to Peacetime

2024/03/07 by Austin Knuppe, Matthew Nanes · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Peacebuilding and International Security #Political Conflict and Governance #Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

paper · doi:10.1080/13698249.2024.2302732

openalex publication_date 2024/03/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/15

Abstract

Iraq’s 2017 victory over the Islamic State (IS) ushered in a period of political gridlock and electoral violence. Rather than demilitarising to compete in elections, pro-government militias retained their weapons while simultaneously providing public goods and services. Iraq’s experience presents a challenge to existing theories of civil war transitions, which suggest that wartime coalitions either fragment or demilitarise as peacetime approaches. Iraq’s stalled transition presents a third possible outcome—a stalled transition—which emerges from constraints confronting pro-government coalitions. Iraq’s ecosystem of ‘militia-party hybrids’ resembles Lebanon, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, where armed groups enter peacetime politics without fully demilitarising.

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