2023/06/15 by Ling Tan, David M. Schultz · 1 voice
Mathematics · Psychology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #COVID-19 and Mental Health #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
paper · pdf · doi:10.1175/bams-d-23-0071.1
openalex publication_date 2023/06/15 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/22
Abstract Numerous studies were published quickly in 2020 and 2021 to understand the effect of weather variables on the spread of COVID-19. We examined 289 peer-reviewed empirical publications, focusing on their characteristics and a critical analysis of their quality. Of the 289 publications, 280 (97%) reported an association between one or more weather variables and the transmission of COVID-19. Of those 289 publications, 109 publications (38%) did not consider any time lag between suspected infections and reporting of the COVID-19 cases, meaning that they examined the weather on the day when the COVID-19 case was reported, rather than the day when the infection occurred. The publications used data from as few as 7 days, with an average of 123 days. Most of these data were collected early in the pandemic when the temperatures were rising as the seasons transitioned from winter to summer in the Northern Hemisphere, making it difficult to determine the subtle effects of the weather on spread. Furthermore, the average time between submission and acceptance was 85 days, but the 10 most-cited publications—all in Science of the Total Environment —were accepted within 10 days of submission, with three accepted on the submission date. Twenty-four review articles were published in 2020 and 2021, with few providing critical reflection on strengths and weaknesses of the literature. Our analysis revealed errors in the publications that were not identified or rectified by corrigenda, comment–reply exchanges, or retractions. This article concludes with recommendations on publishing during future pandemics, as well as best practices for publishing research on weather and COVID-19 transmission. Significance Statement During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, numerous peer-reviewed scientific journal articles were published quickly to understand how weather conditions might influence the spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, many of these articles contained weaknesses or flaws that affected the reliability and accuracy of their results. One flaw in particular meant that weather on the day when the COVID-19 case was reported was used rather than weather on the day the infection occurred. Although science can correct itself through various means, we found that these flaws were usually not identified nor corrected. Our study hopes to shed light on the problems with these articles and offer recommendations for publishing such research so that these problems are not repeated during future pandemics.