2006/07/01 by Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho, Lance Taylor · 3 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Economic Growth and Productivity #Economic Theory and Policy #Economic theories and models
paper · doi:10.1111/j.1467-999x.2006.00250.x
crossref issued 2006/07/01 · crossref published 2006/07/01 · crossref published-print 2006/07/01 · openalex publication_date 2006/07/01 · crossref created 2006/07/10 · crossref published-online 2006/07/24 · crossref deposited 2023/10/09 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · crossref indexed 2026/07/27 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29
ABSTRACT There are regular counterclockwise cycles involving capacity utilization u (horizontal axis) and the labor share ψ (vertical axis) in the US economy since 1929. As in Goodwin’s cyclical growth model, ψ can be interpreted as a Lotka–Volterra predator variable and u as prey. In a phase diagram, dynamics around the u̇ =0 schedule respond to effective demand that econometric estimation (1948–2002) shows to be profit‐led. Distributive dynamics around the =0 curve demonstrate a long‐term profit squeeze. Across cycles, the real wage and labor productivity grow at 0.57 per cent per quarter, holding the labor share broadly stable. Modeling the cycle in the ( u , ψ) plane provides a parsimonious description of demand and distributive dynamics, consistent with the macroeconomics embedded in the work of Kalecki, Steindl, Goodwin and many subsequent authors.