Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century

2025/12/15 by Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss +7 · 3 voices · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Cryospheric studies and observations #Environmental and Cultural Studies in Latin America and Beyond #Polar Research and Ecology

paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9

openalex created_date 2025/12/15 · openalex publication_date 2025/12/15 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.

Citations

• The Randolph Glacier Inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers
• Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
• Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters
• Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023
• Annual mass change of the world's glaciers from 1976 to 2024 by temporal downscaling of satellite data with in situ observations
• Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C
• Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C
• Continuous monitoring of a glacier’s extinction
• Impacts of climate change on mountain tourism: a review
• Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat

Cited by

• Spatiotemporal changes and projections of suitable habitat for the Hainan Eld's deer under climate change

Discussions

• Research involving Vrije Universiteit Brussel reveals peak glacier extinction will hit mid-century. Up to 4,000 glaciers could vanish annually. That equals the entire European Alps population. Limitin [bsky, 3 points, 1 comments]
• Sad to realize my grandkids will probably never see a glacier in the alps - at least not the kind I was able to see. From Van Tricht, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M. et al. Peak glacier extinction in th [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
• **Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century** "_Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 an [mastodon, 0 points, 0 comments]

Related

• Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century
• Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters
• Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023
• Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C
• Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023