2026/06/10 by Alexander R. Davies, Scott D. Loeffler, Joseph P. Smith · 1 voice
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.15191/nwajom.2026.1412
openalex publication_date 2026/06/10 · openalex created_date 2026/06/11 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/26
Coastal flooding is increasingly impacting local communities throughout the Chesapeake Bay, including in Annapolis, MD. Local stakeholders rely on water level forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office (WFO) to prepare and take the appropriate mitigation actions when coastal flooding is forecasted. This study evaluates the accuracy of NWS Baltimore/Washington WFO water level forecasts associated with forecasted coastal flooding events in Annapolis, Maryland, from 2018 through 2022. The results show a systematic high bias in the mean and median water level forecast errors for such events. The forecast errors are the largest during the 12 to 36 hour forecast window, which is the period when local stakeholders start taking protective actions. The median and mean water level forecast errors across all forecast windows for Annapolis associated with forecasted coastal flooding events, along with the large forecast error spread, suggest that the current deterministic approach is not providing local stakeholders with the detailed forecast information necessary to take appropriate actions during coastal flooding events. Given the lack of model guidance within the Chesapeake Bay needed for probabilistic water level forecasting, an alternative approach would be to assess water level forecast uncertainty for specific forecast windows based on prior forecast errors. This approach would be similar to the tropical cyclone track cone used by the NWS National Hurricane Center.