2026/03/17 by Bernd von Mallinckrodt · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Social Sciences · #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Sociology and Norbert Elias #World Systems and Global Transformations
paper · doi:10.5281/zenodo.19058866
openalex publication_date 2026/03/17 · openalex created_date 2026/03/18 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
This paper introduces a heuristic application of the Compression-Reorganization Thermodynamic Index (CRTI), defined as T = R / Φ, to long-term civilizational dynamics across four macro-regions: Persia/Iran, China, the Mediterranean Core, and Europe, spanning 1000 BCE to 2025 CE.T (systemic temperature) is operationalized as the ratio between adaptive reorganization capacity (R) and structural compression (Φ). All values are ordinal structural estimates derived from comparative historical scholarship; they are not empirical measurements. T does not measure moral worth, civilizational superiority, or geopolitical power.The analysis suggests recurring compression-reorganization cycles, divergent plateau dynamics, and a sustained high-T anomaly in post-1500 Europe plausibly associated with inter-state pluralism. A formal exploratory hypothesis on civilizational lifecycle dynamics is proposed (H1: integration → expansion → compression → overcompression → reorganization or collapse), along with proxy variables for future quantitative reconstruction.The framework is compatible with panarchy theory (Holling), critical transitions theory (Scheffer, Dakos), stability theory (May), and cliodynamics (Turchin). This manuscript is explicitly pre-formal and hypothesis-generative in character. complexity sciencecivilizational dynamicssystemic temperaturestructural compressionadaptive capacityCRTIMallinckrodt Frameworkpanarchycritical transitionscliodynamicshistorical systems analysislong-term dynamicsheuristic frameworkcollapse and reorganizationearly warning signals