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Fertility trends across migrant generations reexamined: insights from Finnish register data

2026/02/18 by José Luis Estévez, Anna Rotkirch · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Psychology · #Family Dynamics and Relationships #Cognitive Abilities and Testing #Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving

paper · doi:10.1093/esr/jcag009

openalex publication_date 2026/02/18 · openalex created_date 2026/03/14 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/08

Abstract

Abstract Migrant descendants in several European countries show increasingly lower fertility rates, sometimes even lower than native-born peers—a pattern defying conventional expectations that migrant descendants either maintain origin-country patterns or converge toward host-country norms. Using Finnish register data (1985–1994 birth cohorts), we analyze first-birth timing across six ancestry groups spanning three migrant generations: 1.5, second, and 2.5 (children of mixed or exogamous couples). Entry into parenthood occurs progressively later across these generations, with the 2.5 generation surpassing even native Finns in postponement. We tested four mechanisms—urban residence, educational investment, economic instability, and barriers to union formation—but none explained the delay. Our study contributes to the literature by, first, underscoring the limitations of the convergence narrative to account for the fertility behaviour of migrant descendants and, second, by drawing special attention to the 2.5G as a sui generis group whose behaviour requires further conceptual and empirical attention.

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