2026/03/25 by Bernd von Mallinckrodt · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Chaos control and synchronization #Climate variability and models #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
paper · doi:10.5281/zenodo.19219645
openalex publication_date 2026/03/25 · openalex created_date 2026/03/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
This preprint introduces the Compression–Response Transition Index (CRTI), a ratio-based early warning framework for regime shifts in multivariate dynamical systems. CRTI defines a measurable index T(t) = R(t) / Φ(t), where R(t) captures adaptive capacity (operationalized via multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck return rates) and Φ(t) captures structural compression (operationalized via effective rank compression of the covariance matrix). A minimal coupled ODE system (dR/dt, dΦ/dt) provides dynamical grounding, admitting bistable regimes and a well-defined separatrix under specific parameter conditions. Empirical validation is designed for the Peter Lake whole-ecosystem regime shift dataset using a preregistered falsification protocol and direct comparison against variance- and autocorrelation-based baseline indicators. Universality is treated as an open empirical question. The paper reports operational definitions, sensitivity analyses, and explicit failure modes. early warning signalscritical transitionsregime shiftsadaptive capacitystructural compressioncovariance matrixeffective rankOrnstein-Uhlenbeckbistabilitycomplex systemsdynamical systemsPeter Lakeecological regime shiftmultivariate time seriesfalsifiability