2024/01/23 by Gaurav Khemka, Yifu Tang, Geoffrey J. Warren
Business, Management and Accounting · Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis #Housing Market and Economics #demographic modeling and climate adaptation
paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/1467-8454.12337
crossref issued 2024/01/23 · crossref published 2024/01/23 · crossref published-online 2024/01/23 · openalex publication_date 2024/01/23 · crossref created 2024/01/23 · crossref published-print 2024/09/01 · crossref deposited 2024/11/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/21 · crossref indexed 2026/07/28
Abstract We design a ‘cascade model’ that integrates projections for Australian housing with inflation, incomes and asset markets over long horizons. The model allows simulating joint ‘paths’ for inflation, wages, cash rates, mortgage rates, rents, rental yields, house prices and fund returns. The cascade model structure ensures that equilibrium relationships are maintained between the variables when projecting over very long time periods. It achieves this through linking either growth rates or levels for variables in a manner that ensures consistent trends emerge within each simulated path over the very long‐term, thus avoiding excessively divergent behaviour between variables with common underlying fundamentals.