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Navigating prevalence shifts in image analysis algorithm deployment

2025/02/19 by Patrick Godau, Piotr Kalinowski, Evangelia Christodoulou +5 · 1 voice
Medicine · Computer Science · Health Professions · #COVID-19 diagnosis using AI #Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications #Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare

paper · doi:10.1016/j.media.2025.103504

openalex publication_date 2025/02/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29

Abstract

Domain gaps are significant obstacles to the clinical implementation of machine learning (ML) solutions for medical image analysis. Although current research emphasizes new training methods and network architectures, the specific impact of prevalence shifts on algorithms in real-world applications is often overlooked. Differences in class frequencies between development and deployment data are crucial, particularly for the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), as disease prevalence can vary greatly across different times and locations. Our contribution is threefold. Based on a diverse set of 30 medical classification tasks (1) we demonstrate that lack of prevalence shift handling can have severe consequences on the quality of calibration, decision threshold, and performance assessment. Furthermore, (2) we show that prevalences can be accurately and reliably estimated in a data-driven manner. Finally, (3) we propose a new workflow for prevalence-aware image classification that uses estimated deployment prevalences to adjust a trained classifier to a new environment, without requiring additional annotated deployment data. Comprehensive experiments indicate that our proposed approach could contribute to generating better classifier decisions and more reliable performance estimates compared to current practice.

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