2024/01/12 by Joeri Rogelj, Robin Lamboll · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies #Climate Change Policy and Economics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8
openalex publication_date 2024/01/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04
Abstract Carbon budgets are quantifications of the total amount of carbon dioxide that can ever be emitted while keeping global warming below specific temperature limits. However, estimates of these budgets for limiting warming to 1.5 °C and well-below 2 °C include assumptions about how much warming can be expected from non-CO 2 emissions. Here, we uncover the non-CO 2 emissions assumptions that underlie the latest remaining carbon budget estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and quantify the implication of the world pursuing alternative higher or lower emissions. We consider contributions of methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases, and aerosols and show how pursuing inadequate methane emission reductions causes remaining carbon budgets compatible with the Paris Agreement temperature limits to be exhausted today, effectively putting achievement of the Paris Agreement out of reach.