2026/05/27 by John M. Lanicci, Jordan McLeod, Jake Wiley · 1 voice
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Social Sciences · Environmental Science · #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Innovations in Educational Methods #Science and Climate Studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.15191/nwajom.2026.1410
openalex publication_date 2026/05/27 · openalex created_date 2026/05/28 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/26
In 2022, we implemented a new version of the "City Forecasts" contest in our Synoptic Meteorology II undergraduate capstone at the University of South Alabama. The contest, along with student-led current weather discussions, is a way for students to apply the theory learned in lecture. The new contest is Microsoft Excel®-based, and introduced Student Consensus, the National Blend of Models (NBM), and Model Output Statistics (MOS) from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model as participating "contestants." Forecast parameters were temperature, dewpoint, 12-h max/min temperature, wind direction and speed, cloud cover, ceiling and visibility flight categories, precipitation type, 12-h accumulated precipitation, 12-h probability of precipitation, 12-h frontal passage (yes/no), and 12-h thunderstorm observed (yes/no). From an initial time of 1200 UTC, students produced 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-h forecasts in lab for a total of eight to nine cities within the contiguous United States during the semester, chosen weekly based on expected weather and geographic region. Although the spreadsheets greatly shortened student feedback times, introducing the four automated competitors made the contest more challenging, as only four out of 28 students have beaten Consensus and all three model products over the last three years. Among the model contestants, NAM MOS had the best performance in 2022, while NBM had the best performance in 2023 and 2024. In addition to the enhanced student learning opportunities, we learned that while the NBM was the best model product overall during this period, the MOS products also provided added value to our students.