2026/03/08 by Bernd von Mallinckrodt · 1 voice
paper · doi:10.5281/zenodo.18909327
openalex publication_date 2026/03/08 · openalex created_date 2026/03/09 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
Modern technological, economic, and organizational systems increasingly pursue efficiency through optimization, standardization, and centralization. While such strategies can improve short-term performance, they may simultaneously erode the adaptive redundancy required for long-term resilience. This paper introduces the Singularization Hypothesis, which proposes that systemic collapse in complex adaptive systems often emerges not from disorder, but from excessive structural optimization. To formalize this mechanism, the paper proposes the Compression–Resonance–Tension Index (CRTI), a diagnostic metric designed to quantify systemic fragility. The CRTI framework models the interaction of four key variables: Structural Compression (Φ) – the degree of optimization, standardization, and centralization within a system. Internal Tension (Δ) – accumulated stress arising from load, demand volatility, or systemic imbalance. Adaptive Reserve (Ω) – redundancy, slack, or buffering capacity that enables systems to absorb disturbances. Environmental Resonance (Reff) – the effectiveness and speed of feedback between the system and its environment. The resulting fragility index is defined as: χ = (Φ · Δ) / (Reff · Ω) where χ represents systemic fragility as a dimensionless diagnostic indicator. The model predicts that as systems optimize (increasing Φ), adaptive reserve capacity (Ω) tends to decay non-linearly, leading to a tipping-point dynamic characteristic of complex adaptive systems. When reserve depletion and resonance loss occur faster than feedback mechanisms can compensate, fragility accelerates and the system may transition into a Singularization regime, where minor perturbations trigger large-scale failure cascades. The framework integrates concepts from cybernetics, nonlinear dynamics, resilience theory, and complexity science, providing a conceptual bridge between classical system stability models and contemporary discussions of systemic risk. To support the theoretical formulation, the paper presents a set of visual and analytical models, including: a Singularization Phase Diagram illustrating nonlinear fragility growth, a temporal tipping simulation demonstrating fragility acceleration, a CRTI system landscape visualizing fragility across compression–tension space, and an early-warning diagnostic map identifying critical fragility zones. A brief empirical illustration is provided using the 2021 global supply chain crisis, where extreme just-in-time optimization reduced inventory buffers (Ω), pandemic disruptions increased systemic tension (Δ), and limited supply-chain transparency reduced environmental resonance (Reff), producing a global fragility cascade. The Singularization Hypothesis therefore reframes systemic collapse as a structural pathology of excessive order rather than insufficient order. The CRTI framework offers a potential early-warning diagnostic tool capable of identifying fragility accumulation before catastrophic breakdown occurs. This work contributes to the emerging interdisciplinary field of systemic risk diagnostics by proposing a minimal yet generalizable mathematical architecture that may be applied across economic systems, technological infrastructures, ecological systems, and organizational networks. Keywords (für Zenodo) Empfohlene Keywords: Primary keywords Complex Adaptive Systems Systemic Fragility Structural Optimization Singularization Hypothesis Compression Resonance Tension Index CRTI Secondary keywords Complexity Science Cybernetics Nonlinear Dynamics Resilience Theory System Collapse Systemic Risk Adaptive Systems Early Warning Signals Phase Transitions Tipping Points