2026/03/31 by Phillip M. Ayoub, Sam Whitt · 2 voices
Social Sciences · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Gender Politics and Representation #Populism, Right-Wing Movements
paper · doi:10.5129/001041526x17734964392222
openalex created_date 2026/03/31 · openalex publication_date 2026/03/31 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/18
Amid rising illiberal anti-LGBTQI backlash, some opposition politicians fear that re- sisting it is a political trap that could jeopardize their electoral fortunes. We evaluate this concern in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán's Fidesz government passed a law banning Pride marches. The leading opposition figure, Péter Magyar of Tisza, initially avoided opposing the law, ostensibly to protect his party's future electoral prospects. In a May 2025 survey experiment, we find that this "avoidance" strategy reduces Magyar's approval while failing to increase support for his party. Theoretically, we conceptualize a value-credibility cost mechanism through which elite silence diminishes moral authority, cedes issue ownership, and weakens support for LGBTQI rights. Our results, buttressed by interviews with LGBTQI organizers, contribute to a literature on the costs and benefits of minority rights inclusion in electoral strategy.