Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted?

2025/02/03 by Floe Foxon · 4 voices
Energy · Physics and Astronomy · #Astro and Planetary Science #Global Energy and Sustainability Research #Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics #astro-ph.SR #physics.space-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.3847/2515-5172/adb60f

arxiv published 2025/02/03 · openalex publication_date 2025/02/18 · arxiv updated 2025/02/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/21

Abstract

The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar cycles be predicted? Of more than 100 predictions for cycle 25, most underestimated the amplitude (peak sunspot number). Fewer predictions were made for the timing of solar maximum, but timing predictions seem to be performing better than amplitude predictions. Reasons for inaccurate prediction are suggested, and perspectives are given on how future studies might improve upon the extant literature.

Discussions

• 🚨New paper alert🚨 I have an article out today in Research Notes of the @aas.org looking at #SolarCycle25 predictions. Available open access at: doi.org/10.3847/2515... #Astronomy #Sunspots #SolarCyc [bsky, 5 points, 1 comments]
• #arXiv Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted? https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00978 “Of more than 100 predictions, most underestimated the peak sunspot number of cycle 25. Fewer predictions were made for the [bsky, 3 points, 0 comments]
• #arXiv Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted? https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00978 “Of more than 100 predictions, most underestimated the peak sunspot number of cycle 25. Fewer predictions were made for the [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
• # arXiv Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted? https:// arxiv.org/abs/2502.00978 “Of more than 100 predictions, most underestimated the peak sunspot number of cycle 25. Fewer predictions were made for t [mastodon, 0 points, 0 comments]

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