Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
2020/01/30 by Julien Riou, Christian L. Althaus · 23 citations
Mathematics · Medicine · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
paper · doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.4.2000058
openalex publication_date 2020/01/30 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25
Abstract
Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.
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