Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

2020/04/17 by Dirk Notz, SIMIP Community · 19 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics #Climate variability and models #Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena

paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2019gl086749

openalex publication_date 2020/04/17 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30

Abstract

Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

Citations

• The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
• Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models
• Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6

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