Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030

2020/09/01 by Bramka Arga Jafino, S. Walsh, Julie Rozenberg +1 · 3 citations
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Agricultural risk and resilience #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

paper · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9417

openalex publication_date 2020/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/19

Abstract

Thousands of scenarios are used to
\n provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate change
\n on extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of
\n people falling into poverty due to climate change is between
\n 32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results
\n are commensurate with available estimates for the global
\n poverty increase due to COVID-19. Socioeconomic drivers play
\n a major role: optimistic baseline scenarios (rapid and
\n inclusive growth with universal access to basic services in
\n 2030) halve poverty impacts compared with the pessimistic
\n baselines. Health impacts (malaria, diarrhea, and stunting)
\n and the effect of food prices are responsible for most of
\n the impact. The effect of food prices is the most important
\n factor in Sub-Saharan Africa, while health effects, natural
\n disasters, and food prices are all important in South Asia.
\n These results suggest that accelerated action to boost
\n resilience is urgent, and the COVID-19 recovery packages
\n offer opportunities to do so.

Citations

• The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
• Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
• Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code

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