1998/11/05 by Anders Johansen, Didier Sornette
Physics and Astronomy · #cond-mat
published as Eur. Phys. J. B 9, pp. 167-174 (1999) · 18 pages with 4 figures. Submitted to Eur.Phys.J
arxiv created 1998/11/05 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30
We propose that the minimal requirements for a model of stock market price fluctuations should comprise time asymmetry, robustness with respect to connectivity between agents, ``bounded rationality'' and a probabilistic description. We also compare extensively two previously proposed models of log-periodic behavior of the stock market index prior to a large crash. We find that the model which follows the above requirements outperforms the other with a high statistical significance.