2002/12/18 by Serge Galam
Physics and Astronomy · #cond-mat.dis-nn
published as Cellular Automata, Proceedings, S. Bandini, B. Chopard and M. Tomassini (Eds), Springer 2002 · 12 pages, 2 figures, 5th International Conference on Cellular Automata for Reseach and Industry, ACRI 2002
arxiv created 2002/12/18 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30
A model to describe the spontaneous formation of military and economic coalitions among a group of countries is proposed using spin glass theory. Between each couple of countries, there exists a bond exchange coupling which is either zero, cooperative or conflicting. It depends on their common history, specific nature, and cannot be varied. Then, given a frozen random bond distribution, coalitions are found to spontaneously form. However they are also unstable making the system very disordered. Countries shift coalitions all the time. Only the setting of macro extra national coalition are shown to stabilize alliances among countries. The model gives new light on the recent instabilities produced in Eastern Europe by the Warsow pact dissolution at odd to the previous communist stability. Current European stability is also discussed with respect to the European Union construction.