1995/07/18 by Robert Matthews · 1 voice · 1 citation
Computer Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Sports Analytics and Performance #Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
paper · doi:10.1088/0143-0807/16/4/005
openalex publication_date 1995/07/18 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
We investigate the dynamics of toast tumbling from a table to the floor. Popular opinion is that the final state is usually butter-side down, and constitutes prima facie evidence of Murphy's Law ('If it can go wrong, it will'). The orthodox view, in contrast, is that the phenomenon is essentially random, with a 50/50 split of possible outcomes. We show that toast does indeed have an inherent tendency to land butter-side down for a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, we show that this outcome is ultimately ascribable to the values of the fundamental constants. As such, this manifestation of Murphy's Law appears to be an ineluctable feature of our universe.