2024/10/05 by Georgios Magkonis, Simon Rudkin, Shuonan Zhang
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Global Financial Crisis and Policies #Market Dynamics and Volatility #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
paper · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2024.103581
openalex publication_date 2024/10/05 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
This study investigates the transmission and the business cycle implications of Chinese export shocks to other Asian economies. Based on a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model, we provide evidence that a positive export shock originating from China simultaneously stimulates aggregate demands for both China and other Asian economies. The PVAR model takes into account three main sources of potential interactions among ten Asian economies. Simulations from a two-country DSGE model featuring endogenous trade links suggest that positive trade spillover is essential to explain the macroeconomic comovement pattern. Our findings further indicate the importance of the Chinese economy to business cycle synchronization.