2009/12/08 by Filipe X. Catry, Francisco C. Rego, Francisco Rego +3 · 1 citation
Environmental Science · #Fire effects on ecosystems #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Remote Sensing in Agriculture
paper · doi:10.1071/wf07123
openalex publication_date 2009/12/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Portugal has the highest density of wildfire ignitions among southern European countries. The ability to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and firefighting resources allocation. In this study, we analyzed 127 490 ignitions that occurred in Portugal during a 5-year period. We used logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of ignition occurrence, using a set of potentially explanatory variables, and produced an ignition risk map for the Portuguese mainland. Results show that population density, human accessibility, land cover and elevation are important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to predict the spatial patterns of ignitions at the national level with good accuracy and using a small number of easily obtainable variables, which can be useful in decision-making for wildfire management.