2024/10/15 by Peter K. Enns, Jonathan Colner, Anusha Kumar +1 · 2 voices
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy #Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s1049096524000994
openalex publication_date 2024/10/15 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
ABSTRACT Our 2020 analysis correctly forecasted Joe Biden’s victory and the outcome of every state except Georgia. That forecast relied on economic data from 125 days prior to Election Day and presidential approval data from 104 days (or more) before the election. Since 2000, our model would have correctly forecasted the winner in 95% of all states. We updated our State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model for 2024. This article summarizes the model and its historical accuracy as well as new data updates. We then generate forecasts for the overall two-party popular vote, each state’s outcome, and the Electoral College winner for the 2024 US presidential election. One hundred days prior to Election Day, our model forecasts a split two-party popular vote (50.3% for Trump, 49.7% for Harris) but a notable Trump advantage in the Electoral College, with slightly less than a three-in-four chance that Trump wins the election. This Republican advantage 100 days prior to Election Day sheds light on Biden’s abrupt decision to drop out of the race and suggests that if Harris wins, she will have overcome extremely challenging fundamentals, and/or that Donald Trump and the Republican Party will have squandered a sizeable Electoral College advantage.