Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues

2002/08/01 by YANN L'HÔTE, Yann L’Hôte, Gil Mahé +5 · 6 citations
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Environmental Science · #African Botany and Ecology Studies #Climate variability and models #Hydrology and Drought Analysis

paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/02626660209492960

openalex publication_date 2002/08/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29

Abstract

Since 1970 the West African Sahel has experienced a significant drought which, according to some authors, corresponds to a discontinuity (abrupt change) in the rainfall series. An annual rainfall index was calculated over the period from 1896 to 2000, with a selection of 21 synoptic stations updated regularly by the Agrhymet Regional Centre in Niamey. Several statistical analyses of the index confirmed the previous descriptions, particularly the significance of the drought since 1970 and a nonstationarity, with abrupt change in the series between 1969 and 1970. Although the two recent wet years, 1994 and 1999, gave some hope of an end to the drought, the statistical results and the temporal distribution of the dry and wet years showed that the drought was not over at the end of 2000.

Citations

• A Shift Of The Mean Level In A Sequence Of Independent Normal Random Variables—A Bayesian Approach—
• A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem

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