2026/07/29 by Edward A. Wolff, Edward C. Wolff, Robert J. Trapp +1
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Physics and Astronomy · #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · doi:10.1175/waf-d-25-0225.1
Abstract Quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) tornadoes are particularly difficult for forecasters to predict, commonly resulting in short or negative warning lead times. However, it is hypothesized that relatively deep, discrete updrafts may provide a nowcasting tool, indicating portions of a linear system where tornadogenesis is most probable due to enhanced low-level lifting capable of tilting and stretching vorticity. It is further hypothesized that discrete updraft properties correlate to tornado intensity and duration. Deep, discrete updrafts are easily identifiable in upper-tropospheric radar data, which are still available far from the nearest radar site, where low-level rotation data are unavailable. Using a dataset covering four years (2021–2024), it is shown 59.5% of QLCS tornadoes are preceded by discrete radar reflectivity cores several kilometers aloft, identified using gridded Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data and indicating the presence of a deep updraft. The percentage of reflectivity core co-locations is higher for both more intense QLCS tornadoes (85.7% for EF-3 tornadoes) and for tornadoes occurring in the cool season (66.1%). Analysis of the near-storm environments in each case reveals 5–10 km shear is the best predictor both of tornado intensity and which tornadoes will be co-located with reflectivity cores, with greater shear resulting in more tornadoes having discrete updrafts. The operational applicability of reflectivity cores for QLCS tornadogenesis anticipation may be limited by the frequency of nontornadic cores, tornadoes without reflectivity cores, and cores offering only short lead times.