Seasonal Temperatures and Economic Growth in the United Kingdom

2025/04/18 by Lotanna E. Emediegwu, Lotanna Emediegwu, Veronica Vienne +3
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Climate Change and Health Impacts #demographic modeling and climate adaptation

paper · doi:10.1111/obes.12681

openalex publication_date 2025/04/18 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/02

Abstract

ABSTRACT We study the effect of seasonal temperature on economic growth using spatiotemporal econometric techniques and council‐level data for the United Kingdom (UK). We find that higher temperatures during summer reduce economic growth, whereas milder winters raise output growth. These effects are amplified in wealthy local councils on the Southern axis of the UK. Also, we find that local economic growth is related to growth in neighbouring councils. The results are robust to several sensitivity analyses. They are persistent and not driven by unobservable factors related to regional economic conditions. Our findings provide new insights into the consequences of future warming in advanced economies.

Citations

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