Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers

2026/04/26 by Julian Walterskirchen, Christian Oswald, Sonja Häffner +1 · 1 voice

paper · doi:10.1080/03050629.2026.2656637

Citations

• Organized violence 1989–2022, and the return of conflict between states
• Statistical, machine learning and deep learning forecasting methods: Comparisons and ways forward
• Attention Is All You Need
• Do the robot
• PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• A revised list of independent states since the congress of Vienna

Discussions

• Grateful to my co-authors (@christianoswald.bsky.social , Marco Binetti, Sonja Häffner), the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW), and the organizers of the prediction challenge. Open access here: [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]