2026/07/27 by Jakub Wondreys · 1 voice
paper · doi:10.1017/gov.2026.10046
Abstract European Parliament elections (EPEs) are widely regarded as second-order contests. Their perceived lower importance is expected to produce a distinct set of electoral outcomes, chief among them the proposition that governing parties lose support in EPEs relative to preceding national first-order elections (FOEs). This article examines explanatory mechanisms behind this proposition, focusing on the previously unaddressed effects of clarity of responsibility. Particular emphasis is thus given to whether the expected losses vary with government parties’ size and cabinet role, and with other factors that shape responsibility attribution, including coalition size, ministerial portfolio shares and prior government experience. In addition, I also assess whether parties providing formal external support to governments face electoral penalties in EPEs. Covering all EPEs and corresponding FOEs from 1979 to 2024, the study also examines whether the second-order model and its key mechanisms, such as election timing, have shifted over time in response to broader transformations in European politics.