2020/05/04 by Michio Naoi, Keiichi Sato, Yozo Tanaka +2
Social Sciences · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration #Disaster Management and Resilience #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.1007/s11111-020-00346-6
Abstract This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent inter-municipality migration in Japan’s coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height—rather than anticipated seismic movements—after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, working-age people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions.