2026/07/21 by Eirini Makopoulou, Jan Hjort, Trevor Lantz +1
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climate change and permafrost #Geology and Paleoclimatology Research #Polar Research and Ecology
paper · doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110456
openalex publication_date 2026/07/21 · openalex created_date 2026/07/22 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
Climate warming is accelerating the degradation of ice-rich permafrost and triggering widespread changes in high-latitude and high-altitude landscapes. Among the most dynamic landforms of this transformation are retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), which rapidly reshape terrain and impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and biogeochemical cycles. This study examines RTS environments across the Arctic and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau by comparing key climatic, hydrological, soil and topographic conditions influencing RTS occurrence. To assess regional differences, we apply a multivariate framework combining Gower dissimilarity analysis, PERMANOVA, and Maximum entropy modeling. Our analysis reveals strong regional contrasts between conditions contributing to RTS occurrence. Arctic RTS environments are heterogeneous, with regional differentiation driven primarily by air freezing (FDD) and thawing degree days (TDD) and soil properties, such as bulk density. Topography conditions exert an important and regionally uniform contribution to RTS occurrence. RTSs in the Arctic are mainly controlled by thawing season, while in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau freezing conditions are more important. Overall, temperature-related conditions, particularly thawing degree days, along with rainfall and site water balance, emerged as the most influential conditions. Model performance was consistently high with values of area under the curve (AUC) > 0.80. Variable importance analysis confirmed the dominant role of climate, with terrain and soil drivers contributing secondarily to regional variability. These findings highlight the controlling role of climate and topography in shaping RTS and emphasize the need for region-specific approaches to understand permafrost disturbances in a warming world.