Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

2014/07/11 by Elisabeth Stephens, Hannah Cloke · 1 citation
Environmental Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

paper · doi:10.1111/geoj.12103

Abstract

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK . Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the F lood F orecasting C entre, a recent development in national‐level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.

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• A framework for probabilistic weather forecast post-processing across models and lead times using machine learning. [europepmc]

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