2022/01/24 by Victoria Volodina, Volodina, Victoria, Nikki Sonenberg +9
Energy · Engineering · #62-06 #62P30 #Applications (stat.AP) #Building Energy and Comfort Optimization #Energy Efficiency and Management #Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies #FOS: Computer and information sciences #G.3
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2201.09624
openalex publication_date 2022/01/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Computer models are widely used in decision support for energy systems operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by different teams of experts. Gaussian Process emulators can be used to approximate the behaviour of complex, computationally intensive models and used to generate predictions together with a measure of uncertainty about the predicted model output. This paper presents a computationally efficient framework for propagating uncertainty within a network of models with high-dimensional outputs used for energy planning. We present a case study from a UK county council considering low carbon technologies to transform its infrastructure to reach a net-zero carbon target. The system model considered for this case study is simple, however the framework can be applied to larger networks of more complex models.