2024/08/27 by Nina Effenberger, Effenberger, Nina, Nicole Ludwig +1 · 2 citations
Computer Science · Engineering · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Computational Physics and Python Applications #Energy Load and Power Forecasting #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2408.14889
openalex publication_date 2024/08/27 · openalex created_date 2024/09/21 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Climate change will impact wind and therefore wind power generation with largely unknown effect and magnitude. Climate models can provide insights and should be used for long-term power planning. In this work we use Gaussian processes to predict power output given wind speeds from a global climate model and compare the aggregated predictions to actual power generation. Analyzing past climate model data supports the use of CMIP6 climate model data for multi-decadal wind power predictions and highlights the importance of being location-aware. Our predictions up to 2050 reveal only minor changes in yearly wind power generation. We find that wind power projections of the two in-between climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 closely align with actual wind power generation between 2015 and 2023. Our analysis also reveals larger uncertainty associated with Germany's coastal areas in the North as compared to Germany's South, motivating wind power expansion in regions where future wind is likely more reliable. Overall, our results indicate that wind energy will likely remain a reliable energy source in the future.