2023/07/13 by Felice, Florian
#Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Methodology (stat.ME)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2307.06754
In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams using a statistical method. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete distribution which can handle situations of non equi-dispersion. From its parameters, we derive a mathematical formula to determine the strength of a team. We propose a ranking based on the estimated strengths to compare teams across different championships. Applied to female handball club data from European competitions over the season 2022/2023, we show that our new ranking can have an echo in real sports events and the results.