2024/07/04 by Tomohiro Uchiyama, Uchiyama, Tomohiro
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Economic Theory and Policy #Economic theories and models #FOS: Economics and business #General Economics (econ.GN)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2407.12837
openalex publication_date 2024/07/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this paper, we study two standard (Keynesian) dynamic macroeconomic models (one is piecewise linear and the other is nonlinear). Our purpose is twofold: (1)~For each model, we give a complete characterisation for the existence of a topological chaos (of the GDP levels), (2)~Even if a chaos exists, using ergodic theory, we show that it is possible to predict the future GDP levels "on average". This paper gives a new application of a celebrated result in ergodic theory by A. Avila (2014 fields medalist). We believe that our method/strategy in this paper is generic enough to be used to analyse many other (seemingly untractable) chaotic economic models.