2023/09/27 by Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Faranda, Davide +31
Computer Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD) #Climate variability and models #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Dynamical Systems (math.DS) #Earthquake Detection and Analysis #FOS: Mathematics #FOS: Physical sciences #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Seismology and Earthquake Studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2309.15393
openalex publication_date 2023/09/27 · openalex created_date 2023/09/30 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/03
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study\nhigh-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones,\nthunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic\ndifferences between these events, they all originate as temporary deviations\nfrom the typical trajectories of a geophysical system, resulting in\nwell-organised, coherent structures at characteristic spatial and temporal\nscales. While statistical extreme value analysis techniques are capable to\nprovide return times and probabilities of occurrence of certain geophysical\nevents, they are not apt to account for their underlying physics. Their focus\nis to compute the probability of occurrence of events that are large or small\nwith respect to some specific observable (e.g. temperature, precipitation,\nsolar wind), rather than to relate rare or extreme phenomena to the underlying\nanomalous geophysical regimes. This paper outlines this knowledge gap,\npresenting some related challenges, new formalisms and briefly commenting on\nhow stochastic approaches tailored to the study of extreme geophysical events\ncan help to advance their understanding.\n