2025/11/28 by Nakamura, Tomoshige, Shiraishi, Hiroshi
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Machine Learning (stat.ML) #Statistics Theory (math.ST)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2511.23212
Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) are widely used for non-parametric conditional quantile estimation, yet statistical inference for variable importance measures remains challenging due to the non-smoothness of the loss function and the complex bias-variance trade-off. In this paper, we develop a asymptotic theory for variable importance defined as the difference in pinball loss risks. We first establish the asymptotic normality of the QRF estimator by handling the non-differentiable pinball loss via Knight's identity. Second, we uncover a "phase transition" phenomenon governed by the subsampling rate β (where s \asymp nβ). We prove that in the bias-dominated regime (β≥ 1/2), which corresponds to large subsample sizes typically favored in practice to maximize predictive accuracy, standard inference breaks down as the estimator converges to a deterministic bias constant rather than a zero-mean normal distribution. Finally, we derive the explicit analytic form of this asymptotic bias and discuss the theoretical feasibility of restoring valid inference via analytic bias correction. Our results highlight a fundamental trade-off between predictive performance and inferential validity, providing a theoretical foundation for understanding the intrinsic limitations of random forest inference in high-dimensional settings.