2023/04/24 by Christian Krullikowski, Candace J. Chow, Krullikowski, Christian +19 · 2 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Data Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Geophysics (physics.geo-ph) #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Precipitation Measurement and Analysis #Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2304.12488
openalex publication_date 2023/04/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The Global Flood Monitoring (GFM) system of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) addresses the challenges and impacts that are caused by flooding. The GFM system provides global, near-real time flood extent masks for each newly acquired Sentinel-1 Interferometric Wide Swath Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image, as well as flood information from the whole Sentinel-1 archive from 2015 on. The GFM flood extent is an ensemble product based on a combination of three independently developed flood mapping algorithms that individually derive the flood information from Sentinel-1 data. Each flood algorithm also provides classification uncertainty information that is aggregated into the GFM ensemble likelihood product as the mean of the individual classification likelihoods. As the flood detection algorithms derive uncertainty information with different methods, the value range of the three input likelihoods must be harmonized to a range from low [0] to high [100] flood likelihood. The ensemble likelihood is evaluated on two test sites in Myanmar and Somalia, showcasing the performance during an actual flood event and an area with challenging conditions for SAR-based flood detection. The Myanmar use case demonstrates the robustness if flood detections in the ensemble step disagree and how that information is communicated to the end-user. The Somalia use case demonstrates a setting where misclassifications are likely, how the ensemble process mitigates false detections and how the flood likelihoods can be interpreted to use such results with adequate caution.