2025/10/01 by Olivia K. Bates, Cléo Bertelsmeier · 1 voice · 2 citations
Environmental Science · Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Forest Insect Ecology and Management #Lepidoptera: Biology and Taxonomy
paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/ddi.70106
ABSTRACT Aim Climate change has severe consequences for insects worldwide, many of which play key ecological roles. Despite a large literature predicting insect distribution changes over future climate change, a synthesis of predictions of insect responses to climate change in the literature is still lacking. Location Global. Methods We conducted a review of insect range size predictions under climate change and the methodologies and data sources used by 351 studies. Results From the literature, studies were not significantly more likely to predict range reductions compared to range increases. While introduced species were predicted to increase more frequently in range than native species, both increases and decreases were predicted in both groups, highlighting species‐specific changes. However, large differences in study methodology hinder our ability to compare predicted responses across species. Predictions of future ranges may be driven by factors such as species' physiology and geographic distribution. However, there is a large variety in predicted changes between insect species, and it is unknown to what extent these differences among species are due to the specific set of methodologies and data used to model the species' distribution, given that individual studies vary greatly in regard to the methodologies and data used to make predictions. We therefore discuss these differences and how they may influence range predictions. Conclusions Due to the large differences in studies, concrete conclusions about the future state of insect distributions are unknown. There is a need for standardised benchmarking approaches across insect species groups, using multiple climate emissions scenarios and global circulation models at relevant data resolutions for insect species.