2025/11/18 by Koffi Amezouwui, Brigitte Gelein, Amezouwui, Koffi +5
Computer Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference #Point processes and geometric inequalities #Sports Analytics and Performance
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2511.14297
openalex publication_date 2025/11/18 · openalex created_date 2025/11/20 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We propose a novel mixture model for football event data that clusters entire possessions to reveal their temporal, sequential, and spatial structure. Each mixture component models possessions as marked spatio-temporal point processes: event types follow a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state for ball loss, event times follow a conditional Gamma process to account for dispersion, and spatial locations evolve via truncated Brownian motion. To aid interpretation, we derive summary indicators from model parameters capturing possession speed, number of events, and spatial dynamics. Parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood via Generalized Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Applied to StatsBomb data from 38 Ligue 1 matches (2020/2021), our approach uncovers distinct defensive possession patterns faced by Stade Rennais. Unlike previous approaches focusing on individual events, our mixture structure enables principled clustering of full possessions, supporting tactical analysis and the future development of realistic virtual training environments.