Precise Propagation of Upper and Lower Probability Bounds in System P

2000/03/07 by Angelo Gilio, Gilio, Angelo
Mathematics · #FOS: Mathematics #Probability (math.PR) #math.PR

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.math/0003046

8 pages -8th Intl. Workshop on Non-Monotonic Reasoning NMR'2000, April 9-11, Breckenridge, Colorado

arxiv created 2000/03/07 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30

Abstract

In this paper we consider the inference rules of System P in the framework of coherent imprecise probabilistic assessments. Exploiting our algorithms, we propagate the lower and upper probability bounds associated with the conditional assertions of a given knowledge base, automatically obtaining the precise probability bounds for the derived conclusions of the inference rules. This allows a more flexible and realistic use of System P in default reasoning and provides an exact illustration of the degradation of the inference rules when interpreted in probabilistic terms. We also examine the disjunctive Weak Rational Monotony of System P+ proposed by Adams in his extended probability logic.

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