2023/01/06 by César Rennó‐Costa, César Rennó-Costa, Rennó-Costa, César · 1 citation
Computer Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Social Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #Computer Science and Game Theory (cs.GT) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Sport and Mega-Event Impacts #Sports Analytics and Performance #Sports, Gender, and Society #cs.GT #stat.AP
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2301.03411
14 pages, 9 figures
openalex publication_date 2023/01/06 · arxiv created 2023/01/10 · arxiv updated 2023/01/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
I present a double-elimination format for the 48-team FIFA World Cup that solves many of the concerns raised about the considered formats with mixed round-robin with groups of 3 or 4 teams and single-elimination strategies. Using a quantitative analytics approach, I show that the double-elimination format is fairer, more strategy-proof, and produces more competitive and exciting matches. It solves the problems of possible collusion in the group-of-3 form and the high number of uninteresting games in the group-of-4 format. Using the restrictions of the 2026 FIFA World Cup to be held in North America, I demonstrate that the double-elimination format can be implemented in a 35 days window, just a few more than the current format for 32 teams. I discuss how the format can be adapted to the particularities of the host nations in future editions to facilitate attendees' and organizers' planning.