2022/01/03 by Ze Liu, Liu, Ze, Siyu Yi +6
Mathematics · Medicine · #Advanced Statistical Methods and Models #Applications (stat.AP) #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Data-Driven Disease Surveillance #FOS: Computer and information sciences
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2201.00459
openalex publication_date 2022/01/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously diagnosed cases, which provides a priori information about the true numbers of infections. This motivates us to develop a new, two-stage sampling method in this paper, which utilises the information about the distributions of both population and diagnosed cases, to investigate the prevalence more efficiently. The global likelihood sampling, a robust and efficient sampler to draw samples from any probability density function, is used in our sampling strategy, and thus, our new method can automatically adapt to the complicated distributions of population and cases. Moreover, the corresponding estimating method is simple, which facilitates the practical implementation. Some recommendations for practical implementation are given. Finally, several simulations and a practical example verified its efficiency.