2020/07/10 by Chris Finlay, Finlay, Chris, Bruce A. Bassett +1
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Immunology and Microbiology · Mathematics · Medicine · #Applications (stat.AP) #COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Immune responses and vaccinations #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #q-bio.PE #stat.AP
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2007.05542
17 pages, 10 figures, 6 tables
arxiv created 2020/07/10 · openalex publication_date 2020/07/10 · arxiv updated 2020/07/14 · openalex created_date 2022/07/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Multiple studies have suggested the spread of COVID-19 is affected by factors such as climate, BCG vaccinations, pollution and blood type. We perform a joint study of these factors using the death growth rates of 40 regions worldwide with both machine learning and Bayesian methods. We find weak, non-significant (< 3σ) evidence for temperature and relative humidity as factors in the spread of COVID-19 but little or no evidence for BCG vaccination prevalence or PM2.5 pollution. The only variable detected at a statistically significant level (>3σ) is the rate of positive COVID-19 tests, with higher positive rates correlating with higher daily growth of deaths.