2018/05/31 by Zachary del Rosario, del Rosario, Zachary, Richard W. Fenrich +3 · 1 citation
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Mathematics · #62P30 #Advanced Multi-Objective Optimization Algorithms #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Methodology (stat.ME) #Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design #Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1806.00048
openalex publication_date 2018/05/31 · openalex created_date 2018/11/09 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Statistical uncertainties complicate engineering design -- confounding regulated design approaches, and degrading the performance of reliability efforts. The simplest means to tackle this uncertainty is double loop simulation; a nested Monte Carlo method that, for practical problems, is intractable. In this work, we introduce a flexible, general approximation technique that obviates the double loop. This approximation is constructed in the context of a novel theory of reliability design under statistical uncertainty: We introduce metrics for measuring the efficacy of RBDO strategies (effective margin and effective reliability), minimal conditions for controlling uncertain reliability (precision margin), and stricter conditions that guarantee the desired reliability at a designed confidence level. We provide a number of examples with open-source code to demonstrate our approaches in a reproducible fashion.