2023/06/09 by Andrew Yiu, Yiu, Andrew, Edwin Fong +5 · 5 citations
Mathematics · #Advanced Causal Inference Techniques #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Methodology (stat.ME) #Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference #Statistical Methods and Inference #Statistics Theory (math.ST)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2306.06059
openalex publication_date 2023/06/09 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting one-step posterior to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.